Following a poll released over the weekend by CBS showing that Ted Cruz had moved into second place in the pivotal state of Iowa, but still nine points below Donald Trump, Rich Lowry wrote in National Review a piece entitled, “Here Comes Cruz in Iowa,” in which he boldly predicted that, at least in his view, Ted Cruz is the favorite to win Iowa, even with his somewhat distant second place showing.
Lowry’s words written on Monday have barely had time to dry before they became almost prophetic.
In the new Quinnipiac University presidential Iowa poll released on Tuesday, Ted Cruz has catapulted into a statistical tie with Donald Trump in Iowa, doubling his support from the prior month’s poll:
Donald Trump gets 25 percent of Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants in a too-close-to- call race with Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas who is at 23 percent, double his support from four weeks ago, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Dr. Ben Carson has 18 percent, with Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 13 percent.
This compares to the results of an October 22 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Carson at 28 percent, with 20 percent for Trump, Rubio at 13 percent and Cruz at 10 percent.
One thing that hasn’t changed is the poor showing for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who goes from 5 percent October 22 to 4 percent today.
Today, Sen. Rand Paul is at 5 percent, with Carly Fiorina at 3 percent. No other candidate tops 2 percent, with 2 percent undecided.
“The other candidates will need miraculous comebacks to crack the top tier with slightly more than two months before the voting begins,” said Peter A. Brown, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll said in a statement along with the results.
Among those associated with the grassroots pro-freedom, pro-Constitution American Tea Party movement, Ted Cruz won a whopping 42 percent of the vote, almost double that of the next closest competitor, Donald Trump.
While Dr. Ben Carson still has the highest favorability rating in Iowa at 79%, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio also received very high scores, at 73% and 70% percent, respectively. Only 15% viewed Carson and Cruz as unfavorable.
Cruz and Carson also had the highest numbers in honesty among the fourteen remaining GOP candidates, with Trump receiving the third highest marks.
Ted Cruz also received the highest marks on foreign policy at 24%.
Establishment favorites from the RINO wing of the GOP, Jeb Bush, John Kasich and Chris Christie all came in within the margin of error of zero. Bush took 4%, while Christie had 2%, and Kasich only had 1%. The margin of error in the poll is a +/- 4%.
When asked who had the greatest chance of eventually winning the GOP nominee, Ted Cruz was the number one selection at 25%, followed by Marco Rubio at 20% and Ben Carson at 19%. Donald Trump was picked as the fourth most likely to win among Iowans.
The poll indicates an even greater separation between the top four candidates, Trump, Cruz, Carson and Rubio, and what is now clearly the second-tier remaining ten.
Cruz and Trump have been about the only two candidates that have steered away from attacking each other. However, Trump did indicate recently that if Cruz continued to soar in the polls, he may have to take the gloves off and go after Cruz in the same manner that he has attacked other candidates in the crowded GOP field.
The Iowa Caucus, the first true official test of voters in the nation, is February 1st.
The next GOP presidential debate is December 15 in Nevada, hosted by CNN and Salem Radio.