If Marco Rubio Can’t Win South Carolina, Where Exactly Can He Win?

Marco Rubio

Why South Carolina is a ‘MUST WIN’ for Marco Rubio

Pro-amnesty and establishment darling Marco Rubio must win Saturday’s South Carolina primary on Saturday to remain a viable Republican presidential candidate going forward.

Not doing so would make it clear that not only is the campaign’s well-publicized “3-2-1” (third in Iowa, second in New Hampshire, and first in South Carolina) strategy a failed one (the first two states have already shown that strategy to be flawed), but it would indicate that there is no path to victory for Marco Rubio.

Rubio did finish third place in the Iowa caucus, as was predicted by polls, with the finish being called a “victory” by outlets like pro-RINO network FOX News. However, his disappointing fifth-place finish in New Hampshire derailed the “2” in the “3-2-1” strategy.

In order to get back on track, a first place finish must happen. After all, in order to win a nomination, a candidate must, at some point, begin winning states. Otherwise, he or she is simply playing the role of spoiler.

If Marco Rubio can’t win South Carolina, where exactly can he win?

Most, not all, recent polls show Rubio in third place (a couple show him in second place over Ted Cruz but behind Donald Trump). If accurate, Rubio’s “3-2-1” strategy would turn out to be a “3-5-3” strategy with no other state currently showing the possibility of a victory.

“We are all-in,” one of Rubio’s top advisers told Time about the campaign’s efforts in South Carolina.

Rubio has garnered most of the major endorsements from South Carolina power-brokers, like Governor Nikki Haley, Congressman Trey Gowdy and Senator Tim Scott . Tea Party favorite Jeff Duncan has endorsed Ted Cruz .

If Rubio can’t win with these kind of high-profile endorsements, exactly where can he win?

FLASHBACK Jan. ’16: Rubio Endorser Nikki Haley: ‘Marco Rubio Believes In Amnesty’

Gowdy has been on the campaign trail for Rubio, rather than focusing his full attention on the House Select Committee on Benghazi, attempting to downplay expectations in the Palmetto State.

“Third [place] is not bad here,” Gowdy said. “particularly coming out of New Hampshire where his obituary was being written.”

On Thursday evening, Marco Rubio, after committing to speak at the inaugural “Conservative Conference” hosted by Conservative Review, stiffed thousands of grassroots conservatives at the last minute, causing CR editor-in-chief Mark Levin to say Rubio’s disappearing act was “pretty damn rude.”

EXCLUSIVE: Tea Party Founder: ‘Rush, I Love You, But You’re Dead Wrong About Marco Rubio…’

After South Carolina, the next state up is Nevada on February 23, where Trump commands a whopping 22-point lead according to the RCP average, a state where Rubio spent six years of his childhood, and reportedly has strong ties to the Mormon community.

Some pundits and prognosticators are already predicting that Nevada could be the state where Marco Rubio’s campaign really takes off.

Wait a minute! I thought it was supposed to take off in Iowa, then that momentum was supposed to catapult him to a strong finish in New Hampshire (he finished fifth) and then to victory in South Carolina.

Rubio is caught in the precarious position, as is the other establishment candidates like John Kasich and Jeb Bush, as being weak on the issue of amnesty and illegal immigration, forcing him to lie and distort his record of leadership in the Gang of Eight and Rubio-Schumer amnesty bill, in order to deceive voters.

This is an extremely difficult position, given that major players in the conservative movement, not only Ted Cruz, but grassroots icons like Phyllis Schlafly, are calling out Rubio for his lifelong supporter of amnesty and his betrayal of the pro-Constitution, pro-liberty Tea Party movement that elected him to the U.S. Senate.

Rubio’s repeated lies to the grassroots over amnesty for illegal aliens will never be forgiven. He has about as good a chance of winning them over as Mitt Romney, John McCain and Bob Dole did.

Therefore, Rubio, dead to the grassroots forever, must attempt to win the establishment lane in a year where establishment RINO squishes are despised and couldn’t get elected to the position of dog catcher.

Which leads us to this question. Is this what we’re going to see, state after state of losses for Rubio, only to be followed by hopeful calls to “just wait until the next state?”

Jeb Bush tried running a race without grassroots support and you see how well it worked out — it didn’t. Marco Rubio would love to have grassroots support, but can’t because of his well-documented betrayal on supporting illegal aliens over American citizens.

Rubio has to win South Carolina where he has bet the farm. If he doesn’t, there is no state going forward where a victory for him seems likely.

Marco Rubio is not even ahead in his home State of Florida, where polls show him in no better than third-place.

Nevertheless, the fix is in, facts be damned, with establishment types doing what they always do — pick an establishment candidate — somehow thinking that Rubio, despite his poor overall performance thus far, is the favorite to win the GOP nomination.

To win the general election, Rubio has to first win the primary. And as things look presently, he’s in deep trouble.

On the Republican side, no candidate has ever lost the first four states and then gone on to victory. Certainly this could be the first time that happens, but it’s highly unlikely. Rubio has already lost two. Losing South Carolina and Nevada would make winning the GOP nomination nearly impossible.

 

About the Author

Matthew K. Burke
Matthew K. Burke
A former Washington State U.S. Congressional candidate in 2010, Matthew attended the nation’s first modern day Tea Party in 2009 in Seattle, Washington. He also began writing and blogging that year. Matthew became a Certified Financial Planner in 1995 and was a Financial Advisor for 24 years in his previous life. Matthew was one of the three main writers leading a conservative news site to be one of the top 15 conservative news sites in the U.S. in a matter of months. He brings to PolitiStick a vast amount of knowledge about economics as well as a passion and commitment to the vision that our Founding Fathers had for our Republic.
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